IDENTIFYING OPPORTUNITIES IN ECONOMIC AND REGULATORY TRENDS
Economic Trend: Mortgage rates sink to lowest level in three months
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/01/23/mortgage-rates-sink-lowest-level-three-months/
I believe that this means that an opportunity exists because the 30-year fixed-rate average fell significantly - to 3.6 percent with an average 0.8 points. (Points are fees paid to a lender equal to 1 percent of the loan amount and are in addition to the interest rate.) It was 3.65 percent a week ago and 4.45 percent a year ago. The 30-year fixed rate hasn’t been this low since October. Low mortgage rates are tempting home buyers off the sidelines and into the market. New data shows that buyers didn’t wait until the new year to find their new home and instead were out in unexpected force last month. Existing-home sales grew 3.6 percent in December, its best pace in nearly two. The prototypical customers would be mortgage homebuyers and homeowners, lenders?, investors who buy and sell notes and mortgages, sales professionals .I believe this opportunity would be relatively easy to exploit as there is obvious connections exist with. I saw this opportunity because I had previously worked with it, specifically retail real estate and promissory notes.
There's a 70% chance of US recession in the next 6 months, says study
https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/theres-a-70-chance-of-us-recession-in-the-next-6-months-says-study-4919451.html
A recession and stock market crash can damage inside as well as international economy, as many other countries depend on US stocks as their contributions to US stocks and bonds is significant. The article talks about possibility of recession in 2020. I think the customer with the opportunity would be investors, USA, residents and citizens, anyone who depend on US economy and holds bonds and notes. The opportunity will be relatively difficult to exploit, unless you have assets to invest after recession occurs, as after recessions there is typically a growth. I noticed this opportunity as many people who work in my industry discussing that and thinking who not to loose and make money instead looking at long perceptive if this happens. Solution for them is buying more commercial real estate such as strip malls and class B and С apartment complex because need for these always exists.
Climate Change Is Causing More Natural Disasters
https://www.thebalance.com/top-usa-future-economic-trends-3305666
The U.S. climate is changing as a result of global warming caused by increased greenhouse gases. As the country experiences more extremely hot days, food prices are rising
Rising sea levels worsen flooding in low-lying towns. Floods have hit U.S. coastal towns three to nine times more often than they did 50 years ago. In Miami, Florida, the ocean floods the streets during high tide. To cope, the City of Miami Beach launched a five-year, $500 million public works program.
The frequency of western U.S. wildfires has increased by 400% since 1970. The 2017 fire season was one of the most destructive in recent history. It burnt 9.1 million acres in the United States. Recent wildfire intensity and frequency are worse now than it’s been in the past 10,000 years. The U.S. Forest Service spent almost $2.5 billion, much more than the $1.4 billion spent in 2016. The 2018 North American fire season was 25% worse than during the same time period in 2017.
Financial Markets Control Oil, Gas, and Foods Prices
https://www.forbes.com/sites/daneberhart/2020/01/27/yes-it-is-possible-for-oil-prices-to-be-too-low/#4254f03f241b
The president has also shown he has the power to impact oil prices using several levers. His deregulatory policies have aided the oil and gas boom, allowing energy companies invest with confidence. Supply and demand have become less important in controlling prices. Instead, commodities traders set prices for oil, gas, and food. Foreign exchange traders determine the value of the dollar. The speed of transactions also increased economic volatility. Gas and oil prices rose and fell, depending on investors' moods. That translated to either higher food costs or plummeting commodities prices. Gold prices hit an all-time high in 2011. The following year interest rates hit a 200-year low. The dollar rose 25% in 2014 and 2015. At the same time, oil prices fell to an 11-year low. I found this article on Forbes website. An opportunity might exist those companies and individuals who take advantage and maybe continue to trade with countries such as China. The prototypical customer would be any companies and investors who is willing to invest globally. I think this would be difficult to exploit since there is a risk of potential new regulations and tariffs that may become a challenge for the businesses.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/01/23/mortgage-rates-sink-lowest-level-three-months/
I believe that this means that an opportunity exists because the 30-year fixed-rate average fell significantly - to 3.6 percent with an average 0.8 points. (Points are fees paid to a lender equal to 1 percent of the loan amount and are in addition to the interest rate.) It was 3.65 percent a week ago and 4.45 percent a year ago. The 30-year fixed rate hasn’t been this low since October. Low mortgage rates are tempting home buyers off the sidelines and into the market. New data shows that buyers didn’t wait until the new year to find their new home and instead were out in unexpected force last month. Existing-home sales grew 3.6 percent in December, its best pace in nearly two. The prototypical customers would be mortgage homebuyers and homeowners, lenders?, investors who buy and sell notes and mortgages, sales professionals .I believe this opportunity would be relatively easy to exploit as there is obvious connections exist with. I saw this opportunity because I had previously worked with it, specifically retail real estate and promissory notes.
https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/theres-a-70-chance-of-us-recession-in-the-next-6-months-says-study-4919451.html
A recession and stock market crash can damage inside as well as international economy, as many other countries depend on US stocks as their contributions to US stocks and bonds is significant. The article talks about possibility of recession in 2020. I think the customer with the opportunity would be investors, USA, residents and citizens, anyone who depend on US economy and holds bonds and notes. The opportunity will be relatively difficult to exploit, unless you have assets to invest after recession occurs, as after recessions there is typically a growth. I noticed this opportunity as many people who work in my industry discussing that and thinking who not to loose and make money instead looking at long perceptive if this happens. Solution for them is buying more commercial real estate such as strip malls and class B and С apartment complex because need for these always exists.
Climate Change Is Causing More Natural Disasters
https://www.thebalance.com/top-usa-future-economic-trends-3305666
The U.S. climate is changing as a result of global warming caused by increased greenhouse gases. As the country experiences more extremely hot days, food prices are rising
Rising sea levels worsen flooding in low-lying towns. Floods have hit U.S. coastal towns three to nine times more often than they did 50 years ago. In Miami, Florida, the ocean floods the streets during high tide. To cope, the City of Miami Beach launched a five-year, $500 million public works program.
The frequency of western U.S. wildfires has increased by 400% since 1970. The 2017 fire season was one of the most destructive in recent history. It burnt 9.1 million acres in the United States. Recent wildfire intensity and frequency are worse now than it’s been in the past 10,000 years. The U.S. Forest Service spent almost $2.5 billion, much more than the $1.4 billion spent in 2016. The 2018 North American fire season was 25% worse than during the same time period in 2017.
Financial Markets Control Oil, Gas, and Foods Prices
https://www.forbes.com/sites/daneberhart/2020/01/27/yes-it-is-possible-for-oil-prices-to-be-too-low/#4254f03f241b
The president has also shown he has the power to impact oil prices using several levers. His deregulatory policies have aided the oil and gas boom, allowing energy companies invest with confidence. Supply and demand have become less important in controlling prices. Instead, commodities traders set prices for oil, gas, and food. Foreign exchange traders determine the value of the dollar. The speed of transactions also increased economic volatility. Gas and oil prices rose and fell, depending on investors' moods. That translated to either higher food costs or plummeting commodities prices. Gold prices hit an all-time high in 2011. The following year interest rates hit a 200-year low. The dollar rose 25% in 2014 and 2015. At the same time, oil prices fell to an 11-year low. I found this article on Forbes website. An opportunity might exist those companies and individuals who take advantage and maybe continue to trade with countries such as China. The prototypical customer would be any companies and investors who is willing to invest globally. I think this would be difficult to exploit since there is a risk of potential new regulations and tariffs that may become a challenge for the businesses.
The Economy Is in the Expansion Phase
The phases of the business cycle are like the seasons in the year. The 2008 financial crisis was so devastating that the economy took seven years to return to robustness. That was delayed by the U.S. debt crisis in 2011, the fiscal cliff in 2012, and the government shutdown in 2013. The shutdown in 2019 also hurt economic growth.
We are currently in the expansion phase. The economy can remain in this phase for several more years. But at some point, it will go into the peak phase. That's marked by the irrational exuberance that creates asset bubbles. That's the precursor to the contraction phases and another economic crisis. The history of booms and busts predicts that could occur between 2019 and 2020.
Hi William! Very interesting to hear about the mortgage rates falling to their lowest mark this year. My family and I are putting our house for sale this summer in New York, so it was great reading about the expected trends in real estate. The fact that mortgage rates are expected to continue to dip means that house hunters will have even more buying power, and hopefully be out in full force for 2020.
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